Santorum Winning the Battle But Losing the War

Posted by root | 29 Mar, 2012

Recently I was asked by Bayou Buzz to comment on the results of the Louisiana Republican Presidential Primary (March 24, 2012). My analysis is below. In addition, if you would like to read the comments of other contributors to Bayou Buzz, go to http://www.bayoubuzz.com/buzz/latest-buzz/479348-santorum-no-surprise-but-louisiana-cross-road-for-gop-campaign.

Do today’s GOP primary results surprise you at all?

The outcome of Saturday's vote is no surprise. Rick Santorum won again in the Deep South as he has done in Alabama and Mississippi. Santorum and Mitt Romney will share the 20 delegates up for grabs in Saturday's vote with Santorum receiving the biggest share.

What is the major story line coming out of the Louisiana primary?

The contest moves on to states where Romney is expected to do very well. While Mitt Romney has yet to close the deal, Rick Santorum has yet to close the gap in the delegate count and time is running out. It may be that Santorum and the other's best hope is to deprive Romney of the majority of delegates forcing a brokered convention which could be disastrous in November.

Romney will continue to win outside the Deep South while Santorum will continue to struggle. The states Romney has lost such as Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama will still vote for the Republican nominee whether it is Romney or someone else. The battleground states will not
necessarily vote for the Republican nominee but are more likely to vote Romney than any other Republican. So unless Santorum can show he can win in those states Romney remains the most likely Republican candidate to defeat President Obama.